WAYS TO PEACE AND STABILITY IN THE HORN OF AFRICA BASIC PRINCIPLES. 

     There are nearly 200 countries and over five billion people living on the planet. Countries differ in historical conditions, social systems, level of development as well as in their cultural tradition and values. There cannot and should not be a single development model, a single set of values and social system. The diversity of the world should not be an obstacle to the development of relations between countries but the sources of an impetus for them to interact with, complement and enrich one another. Every country has the right to choose a social system, development strategy and way of life suited to its own national condition.

 All countries large or small, strong or weak, rich or poor should be equal members of the international community. International orders whether existing or what some call “new world order” should be based on the principles of peaceful co-existence and other established norms governing international relations.

      SITUATIONS CONSIDERED ERA OF PEACE AND STABILITY

           Harmony between nations is a kind of relationship, which is virtually no conflict of interests or values. It can be said that it is the feeling of solidarity and bonding that members, nation’s citizens feel when they share a common cause that is development and prosperity.

   Peace involves high level of cooperation at the same time as awareness and pursuit of conflicting interests. Parties, nations, countries value their overall relationship more than specific self-interests. Separate interests are pursued within peaceful, institutionalized dispute settlement mechanism; parties feel no military force to safeguard security against the others. Creation of democratic institutions enables communities to realize peace and stability.

       SITUATIONS OF CONFLICT AND INSTABILITY

       Tension, crisis, war are situations of conflict between groups, parties or nations. Conflict is present when two or more parties perceive that their interests are incompatible, express hostile attitude, or take pursue their interests through actions that damage the other parties. The parties may be individuals, small or large groups, and countries. Interests may include:

·        RESOURCES---Territory, money, energy, food, etc.

·        POWER---hegemony, control and participation in political decision-making.

·         IDENTITY—concerning the culture, social and political communities to which people feel tied.

·        STATUS------whether people believe that they are treated with respect and dignity and whether their traditions and social positions are respected.

·        VALUES—particularly those embodied in system of government, religion or ideology.

   Not all conflicting interests are pursued with violence. Societies can progress when parties’ changing needs are identified and accommodated. Some differences in the advance of democracy are type of letting vent rather than to prevent. Violent conflicts happen when parties go beyond seeking to attain their goal peacefully and try to dominate or destroy the opposing parties’ ability to pursue their own interests. Such actions by an irresponsible party lead to instability in a region or country.

CAUSES OF CONFLICTS—INTERNAL AND CROSS BORDER

    Root cause of conflicts is directly related to absence of democracy and failure of economic system. Other causes of conflict include, resources (water, grazing land), ethnic tension, migrant workers, environmental aspects (such as building a dam that affects the flow of water to neighbors, illegal activities (making counterfeit currency and trying to weaken economic activities of your neighbor, exporting other countries products as your own). 

   TYPES OF CONFLICTS

  Conflicts can be internal or cross boundaries. They include:

·        Boundary and territorial conflict.

·         Civil wars and internal conflicts.

·          Succession conflicts.

·           Political and ideological conflicts..

   IS THE HORN OF AFRICA REGION PEACEFUL AND STABLE?

      Instead of answering my question in black and white, allow me to present my observation on the countries that comprise the horn region.

        SUDAN------ Sudan is expected to be the grain basket of African. But, the fertile land, and the natural gift of the Nile water is under utilized. When you cross the border to Egypt, some can easily notice the difference on how the two countries use the Nile water. With the discovery of oil reserve, Sudan has the potential for development.

    I would say resources are not enough by themselves, governance also play great role.

·        There is economic disparity in the country. The south, eastern, and western parts are almost neglected. The central and northern parts of the country are the main beneficiaries of the economy and this is recipe for conflict.

·        Imposition of one religion on others like introducing Sharia law to govern with is another blunder to the Sudanese religious reality in the country.

·        The question of the right of nationality was also a factor for internal instability.

The internal conflict as the result of the above factors used to go beyond borders, but nowadays the government seems to have realized the obstacles, solved the thirty years war with the south and is negotiating with the western and eastern regions of the country and is tiptoeing in the right direction.

     ETHIOPIA—the southern part is still virgin land, ample rainfall in most part of the country and most of the rivers flow year round and are good enough for developing hydroelectric power. The potential for development is real.

       The country used to be administered by feudal lords for decades, who had no desire of investing in the country, but prefer to safe guard their luxury by investing in western banks. Then brutal military regime administered the country for seventeen years. Terror was the order of the day. I wouldn’t say there was a clear beneficiary of the country’s economy, but the western banks and the arms dealers.

      I dear to say a revolutionary change took place in Ethiopia with military victory of the present government over the military junta.

·        The first thing the government tackled is the constitution of the country. They drafted and enacted a constitution that recognizes the political right of nationalities. This is great satisfaction for Ethiopians who have been deprived all this years of such political right. People if they feel free they vote for their interest. I don’t think elitist democracy will work in Ethiopia any more.

·        Rural areas are the main beneficiaries of the Ethiopian economic development these days.

·         The euphoria of military victory over the military junta in 1991 tempted them to use it against other governments like Sudan and Somalia, but quickly realized their adventurous activities that violets sovereign rights and are now building healthy relationship with it’s neighbors except Eritrea.    

Even though there are sporadic armed conflicts in some parts of the country, civil disobedience on certain occasions one can say Ethiopian democracy is inching towards peace and stability.

Somalia— it has been almost fifteen years since the law of the jungle governs in Somalia. By all accounts Somalia is expected to be stable and peaceful than any other African country for the reasons below:

·        The people of Somalia are of one nationality except for tribal and clan lines. This should have been a blessing for cohesiveness.

·        The Somalis are all Moslems and this is another factor for being unified.

·        They all speak the some language except for some dialect that means there is no communication problem that leads to misunderstanding of each other.

         I admit it is beyond me to correctly analyze the political situation in Somalia.

        DJBUOTI--it is small country at the tip of the horn. The presence of a foreign Army which is French army bothers me. No body knows whether they are there to suppress internal uprising or protect the country form outside invaders.

     ERITREA- My country of origin and my first home is suffering at the hand of brutal and incompetent dictatorial regime.

        Eritrea became a member of the world nations after thirty years of armed struggle. I believe what we learnt during these thirty years is to be trigger happy.         

         Eritrea is mired with internal and external conflicts. The Eritrean government was expected to be busy with the following post freedom activities.

·        Infrastructure recovery {water, sanitation, shelter and transportation)

·          Food security and agricultural rehabilitation.

·           Urgent health, education and basic social welfare requirements, employment.

·         Demobilization, refugee repatriation, and rule of law promotion.

       Instead the dictatorial regime chose to bully the Eritrean people, and destabilize the neighboring countries.

   The PFDJ government started war with neighboring Sudan in the name of vanguard of anti-terrorism. Attacked Yemen to hide and expand foreign military bases from the Dehalak Islands to the Hanish Islands. Invaded Ethiopia to cover up its failed economic policy. Eritreans now are prisoners in their own country with no friendly neighbor.

      As soon as freedom was won Eritrean political organizations asked for inclusive transitional government to be established but got deaf ears from the dictatorial regime and started servitude labor in the name of national service and is practicing it to this date. Young Eritreans at present are being herded in military camps waiting to invade Ethiopia in the name of Bademe. We do not think they have the armaments because the Eritrean economy cannot afford it, but the dictator lives with miscalculations and illusions and might say the “stick is mightier than the gun”, cut all the eucalyptus trees in the country and arm them with that and tell them to hit the road, then perish on the valleys as usual. Every political organization was branded as terrorist or traitor. Eritrea now is hell to live in. The whole world is saying demarcation needs dialogue between the two parties involved, but the dictatorial regime does not get it. As one honorable Eritrean American doctor who went to law school in the U.S. said once,” educated Eritreans feel unpatriotic to criticize what they call their own government”, but forget their main responsibility as educated individuals. I say what is patriotic is to fight for the betterment of the people, but not to safeguard dictatorship. The main source of revenue in Eritrea are the ports, resources from the red sea, and our ports will be busy only if we understand how to co-exist with our neighbors.

    WHAT IS THE WAY OUT OR THE RESOLUTION?

        I hope it is clear to every body by now that the horn of Africa region is one of the hot-spots in the world we live.

     The commonwealth Secretary-general Don McKinnon once said: “sound economic development and strong trade relations can prove powerful ingredients of stability and antidotes to conflict. If the stability of your economy and the well-being of your population depend on trading with your neighbor, you will think twice about going to war with them.”

        Conflict and peace are not random, unexplainable phenomena. Both are created and both can be influenced. Conflict and peace are not static. They are dynamic, connected processes that evolve over time. So here are some of my thoughts:

·        It is unimaginable to see the civilized world community let the Somalis kill each other, die of starvation get stricken of deceases for all this years. I call upon the international, regional and local organizations coordinate the horn of Africa conference and discuss the ways and means of resolving both internal and cross- border conflicts until satisfactory resolution is achieved. The United Nations UN, the African Union AU, the Arab League AG, the Inter-Governmental Authority for Development IGAD, and the Sana’a Alliance SA should shoulder this responsibility as an entity and come to the needed resolution. These organizations never worked together on this issue, but tried separately with no persistence.

·        Donor countries should try to find ways and means of reaching the people in distributing their donations rather than handing it to rogue governments.   

·         The world nations should try to identify democratic organizations that oppose the rule of these rogue governments or organizations and work with them to build up democracy with them. Here I am not advocating for armed intervention, but for political recognition, material support, and expert advice. I believe imported democracy through armed intervention does not last beyond the occupation.

·        Intellectuals from these countries who reside out of their country should try to come together and voice their plan of action for peace and stability in the region. It seems to be unrealistic, but I believe it can be done specially at this era of Internet and Telex-conference.

·         Peace loving countries should look into the horn of Africa political situation and be able to find out who is disturbing the peace. Once they find out who is the rogue, it should be time to bar giving visas to the officials of that rogue government, and close any bank account of the officials either individually owned or governmental- ownership.

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