Blind Vision

As we celebrate the forty fifth anniversary of the commencement of the armed struggle of Eritrean independence, it is time to reflect back to the aspirations and wishes of Sheik Abdelkedir Kebire, Sheik Ibrahim Sultan and Ato Woldeab Woldemariam that led them to lit the torches of freedom.

It is also time to reflect the wise words of Min. Haile Woldetensae (Drue) who told us six years ago about this time that,

‘Once UNMEE is deployed on the border between Eritrea and Ethiopia, we should return to the important task of running our country, while at the same time minding the border issue with the corner of our eyes …  People are asking for the Eritrean Constitution to be implemented …’

Unfortunately PFDJ and Eritrea can’t escape from such wise words, no matter how much dust and smoke PFDJ tries to create.  PFDJ continues to compound mistakes in its futile attempt to erase Min. Haile’s foresighted advice to us.

Some of my fellow countrymen of the ‘higdef’ variety continually engage me in discussions of PFDJ’s (or rather PIA) vision.  They keep referring to PFDJ’s ‘National Charter’, and point out the economic developments of our cherished country through the construction of infrastructure.   Although no one can deny that some infrastructure projects have been undertaken, only the experienced will ask the following questions [I will use dam projects as an example]

1.    If a dam that should only cost Nakfa 1 Million ends up costing Nakfa 5 Million because of inefficient construction management [or mismanagement], one should ask, is it worth it?

2.    If a dam was built as drinking water reservoir or for the purposes of watering farms, was the intended end use of the dam implemented?

3.    Dam requires periodic or annual maintenance to remove soil and silt deposits.  Are these period maintenance undertaken to ensure long-term use of the dam.

The current PFDJ propaganda on Eritrea’s economic development focuses on infrastructure, and esp. roads.  But this is a significant regression from the economic successes of EPLF.  If EPLF had pursued the same economic activities and propaganda as PFDJ, EPLF would have only concentrated its efforts and propaganda on the “Bidho” road project.  One can compare the successes of EPLF’s economic efforts with PFDJ’s economic failures,

1.    EPLF undertook spectacular road construction projects (considering its limited resources),

2.    EPLF’s pharmaceutical factory produced over 35 types of basic medicines.  PFDJ dismantled the factory soon after independence and now imports medicine from abroad.  The technical knowledge and experience earned in ‘meda’ is now lost.

3.    EPLF produced sanitary napkins for women, produced pasta and many other types of foods, and other products.

4.    EPLF strived to attain self-sufficiency in food production for its units.

EPLF’s efforts were focused on efficient and timely delivery of immediate needs – food, medicine, and other basic necessities – hence its success.

As a famous political quote is adapted to our situation, we can say, ‘I know EPLF.  I worked with EPLF, and you [PFDJ] ain’t no hizbawi ginbar’

Vision for Socio-political Progress or Digression

Some of my gullible fellow countrymen fail to understand that the illusionary ‘PFDJ’ economic successes as manifested in its sole efforts of undertaking token infrastructure projects are similar to what bankrupted Latin America and didn’t save the once Mighty Soviet Union from economic collapse.  If infrastructure alone could bring economic miracles, Latin America and Communist Soviet Union would have been economic powerhouses by now. 

Unfortunately peasant mentality is enticed by the trappings of tangible goods – the bridge, the road, and the steel-and-concrete.  ERI-TV is geared towards reaching this small segment of the Diaspora crowd.  In reality, wealth is created by nurturing the mental capacities and entrepreneurial spirits of individuals, while maintaining the rule-of-law needed to ensure these individuals flourish.  Wealth isn’t created by single dimensional development of a nation, but by ensuring balanced socio-economic growth and legal and political stability.       

A nation can only develop when a doctor functions as a doctor, a lawyer as a lawyer, a national leader as a national leader [not micro-managing], and a soldier as a soldier [not as businessman and civilian administrator at the same time].  There is something major amiss when a doctor acts as a mechanic, a soldier acts as the judge, jury, and executioner, an engineer acts as laborer on Warsai Yekealo project.

Some may use GDP per capita or other economic indicators to ascertain the economic successes and failures of a country. However the most important indicator of the socio-economic health of any country is measured by the following indicators,

1.    People fleeing country per capita,

2.    Imprisonment per capita,

3.    Money fleeing country per capita (capital flight),

4.    Lack of private sector investment in country

By all counts, PFDJ’s Eritrea surely tops the world list in all four counts.  Eritreans fleeing Eritrea have reached mass ‘Exodus’ proportion – their aspiration, to reach the shores of North America.

… which brings us to PFDJ’s political vision of America-bashing.

PFDJ’s political vision for Eritrea has now reached its lowest level of barking and biting of any real or perceived political foes.  But again, barking and biting is a sign of troubled conscious or a sinking political ship.

How things have changed!  In the mid-eighties, TPLF engaged in intense hate propaganda against EPLF. Asked to respond to TPLF’s anti-EPLF propaganda, EPLF officials said that they choose to ignore such political noise.  ‘Tim Meritsena!’  These were ‘simple words’ from a confident liberation movement.  Twenty years later, it is PFDJ that is engaged in intense hate propaganda while TPLF is saying ‘Tim Meritsena!’  Many Eritreans who still remember those days must be saying ‘Ay Wurdet!’

PFDJ’s political vision has now reached a point where it is attacking the democratically elected president of the USA.  ERI-TV is actively engaged in showing unfortunate acts of extremely few rogue American soldiers in Iraq with the various snippets of President Bush’s speeches on freedom, democracy and liberty.  This is cheap PFDJ propaganda.

Although US’s foreign policy leaves much [in fact a lot] to be desired, including on the resolution of Eritrean-Ethiopian border dispute, PFDJ’s Eritrea can’t begin to compare to Bush’s America.  In cue with their leader, higdefawiyans have begun bashing America.  For the record, America provides very well for its 300 Million citizens and 12 million illegal aliens.  Half of the world’s population is doing everything they can to migrate to America.  Although certain segments of its population live in perpetual poverty, no nation in the world has achieved ideal living conditions for such diverse group of people.  By PFDJ’s Eritrea standard, we haven’t seen poor Americans fleeing to Mexico or other countries.  IF one can’t put a price-tag on ‘freedom’, America is infinitely richer than Eritrea.   

Hypocrisy abound, higdefawiyans in America (and in the West) have taken up to bashing their adopted country – a country that has given them freedom and economic wealth.  For some strange reason, we haven’t seen higdefawiyans migrating back to PFDJ’s Eritrea.  They cheer PFDJ’s predatory practices towards Eritrea’s youths from safe six-thousand miles away while ensuring that their children are nicely tucked away in their American homes, and, during these summer months, taking their kids to Disneyland, while Eritrean mothers are forced to give up their children to Sawaland.

To add insult to injury, higdefawiyans in the West are labeling our Warsai-Yikealo heroes who migrate to the West as ‘deserters’.  Hypocrisy abound, higdegawiyans in the West believe that they have God-given rights to enjoy this life -  to enjoy the economic wealth of their adopted country while bashing it, and at the same time for their houses to be built by the sweat and [deprivation of] freedom of Warsai-Yekealo in Eritrea for their retirement.  If this isn’t ‘beletse’, nothing else is – and we haven’t yet seen a country built on ‘beletse’. 

In reality, when these Warsai-Yikealos arrive on the shores of the greatest countries in the world, we should thank them for their services, and give them words of encouragement – ‘Kenebriyekum mitegebe’e’! At the very least, ‘Ab adna kab zeykone,’ let us help you become productive in your adopted countries.    

Blind Economic Vision

Experience can be defined as the accumulation of learning from past activities.  For instance, in an army, one must rise up the ranks.  Similarly, in large companies, most likely, one must rise up the ranks.  In business, most often, one must start from a single store, and build store-by-store before becoming the largest company in the world, as Wal-mart has done.

Some gullible Eritreans pin the future of Eritrea on the discovery of some large natural resources (mining or oil).  In reality, Eritrea is already rich in human and natural resources.  Its coastal line and strategic location, along with its marine resources, tourism, and easily accessible potash, marble and granite resources could have easily been exploited to embark Eritrea on economic recovery a decade ago.      

Had PFDJ’s government embarked on the experience curve by exploiting existing natural resources, we could have had confidence that it is capable of exploiting possibly bigger future discoveries.  Knowing that PFDJ is squandering existing resources, what confidence can we have that it won’t squander away our future wealth?

In fact, PFDJ is using its meager financial resources to persecute Eritreans and to wreak havoc in the region.  One can only be apprehensive about what a more resourceful PFDJ can do to the political stability of the region.  

In reality, PFDJ has no economic vision.  If its definition of economic development is one dimensional building of some minor infrastructure projects then Eritrea is condemned to poverty.  Just to burst its tokenism projects, it is necessary to look at one simple illustration. A Western state with the size of Eritrea (about 4.5 million population) consumes over 20,000 MW of electricity at its peak consumption.   The total electricity production of Eritrea is less than 200 MW.  With fuel shortages, the monthly ‘megawatt hour’ electrical production in Eritrea has dropped significantly.  Even if electrical production returns to 24-hours per day, no one can confidently say if shortages won’t return.  Without adequate electrical production, there can’t be sufficient economic activity in Eritrea.  PFDJ hasn’t even begun to scratch the surface of economic growth.

Most important, who says that PFDJ has a monopoly on economic vision?  The economic ills of Africa and third world governments in general remain big governments, which continue to blur politics and economic functions in societies.  When the big sticks of politics become the sole drivers for economic activities in a nation, the end result is corruption, mismanagement and nepotism become the norm.

For those who argue on socio-economic, political, and legal issues without any inkling of the experiences and histories of other nations and people, they should take time to review the lessons of history.  There are even countries that flourished during times of war through intensive increase of domestic production.  But the most critical component remains that citizens [esp. entrepreneurs] of a country must feel secure that their private capital and property is protected from arbitrary government seizures, and government must encourage domestic private production.  Wealth and capital accumulation is critical component of growth.  PFDJ’s Eritrea isn’t accumulating neither wealth nor capital – and instead squandering it on purchasing armaments and as bribery to expensive alcohol consuming army officers.  The most sustainable growth can only be achieved by protecting the rights and freedoms of citizens to engage in any lawful activities that allow a nation to develop. 

The best analogy is probably a tenant who rents a house for a short time.  Because the tenant doesn’t own it, he won’t make any effort to repair, maintain, or renovate the house.  The condition of the house may deteriorate over the life of the rent.  However, an owner who lives in his own house will make all the necessary repairs, maintenance, and renovations to ensure the house remains in good condition.  This is an issue of ‘ownership’.  The same can be said about the ‘diesa’ system, which has the same drawbacks.  Similarly, PFDJ’s Eritrea strips Eritreans of their God-given ownership of the nation.  Ordinary Eritreans are now common tenants renting Eritrea from PFDJ.  In today’s Eritrea, Eritreans in Eritrea [esp. youth] must migrate to foreign lands if they ever want to own their piece of land on this earth.

We don’t have a crystal ball to predict the future.  But if today’s realities are predictors of the future, PFDJ’s vision is only to destroy Eritrea.

Veteran Fighters Sharing PFDJ Vision?

Some argue that many veteran EPLF fighters in Eritrea continue to believe in and support PFDJ’s vision.   This is the most fallacious argument.  In a nation where dissent is swiftly and mercilessly dealt with, no one can say for certain whether tegadelties’ verbal support of PFDJ’s blind vision can be translated at face value. 

1.    PFDJ regime has made sure that veteran tegadelties’ survival depends on the survival of the PFDJ regime.  With the skills of wicked person, the PFDJ regime has refused to implement a pension system to address veteran tegadelties rightful concern about their future.  The PFDJ regime is telling these veteran fights that if it falls that they will fall with it. 

2.    PFDJ has amassed a large network of snitches – young men who earn Nfa 2,500 or more plus expenses to hang out at any public bars, restaurants, and public meeting places to spy on anything that moves.  No one, including tegadelties feel secure or immune from the cruel PFDJ retribution.  Thus, tegadelties must continue to ‘appear’ in favor of the PFDJ regime and its twisted ‘vision’ out of fear, and not out of conviction.

3.    Unfortunately, the opposition camp has failed to address this apprehension and thus tegadelties understandably feel apprehensive that any opposition influence in the post-PFDJ regime may deprive them of their livelihood. 

This and many other similar factors have ensured that, at the very least, these veterans appear to support the PFDJ ‘vision’.  During periods of dictatorships, the opinions and views of citizens can’t be taken at face value.

On other related thoughts

Zoba 7 – Somalia?

Eritrea has six zobas under PFDJ administrative schemes.  But for those who follow PFDJ media and its sympathizers these days, they can be forgiven if they thought that Somalia constitutes Zoba 7.   Open some of the Eritrean official and sympathizer websites and Somalia and Sudan are plastered all over their news pages.  We are being fed such heavy doses of Somalia and Sudan to supposedly sedate us from our internal problems.  Let us keep our eyes on the ball – the continued gross violations of human rights in Eritrea.  As some of the focused websites have done, concentrate on such issues as the ‘Peace March’ and ‘Eritreans in Libya’. 

Suddenly, as if we don’t have our own many other domestic issues, we are made to follow the tragic Somali situation as if Barentu was about to be occupied in 2000 – 20 kilometers from Mogadishu, ten kilometers from Baidoa, five kilometers from another Somali town, etc …

Similarly, the surrender of Brig. General Kemal Gelchu and other Ethiopian soldiers doesn’t begin to address the over 20,000 young Eritreans who have fled Eritrea. 

We should not be distracted by PFDJ’s dust and smoke politics.  All these so-called major news are simply a futile attempt to hide its ever increasing precarious and tenuous political situation.

Although our distrust of the Meles/TPLF regime will remain deeply embedded in us for some time, prudent Eritreans shouldn’t be overly eager about removing an EPDRF regime that will only lead to chaos in Ethiopia. Prudent Eritreans should only support a peaceful resolution and then a sustainable evolutionary change within Ethiopia that won’t leave any power vacuum in Ethiopia.  Otherwise, a burning house next door will also engulf our nation and our region.  PFDJ’s single-minded effort of attempting to destroy Ethiopia is equivalent to draining a whole ocean to catch its one fish.  Those who will pay the price won’t only be Ethiopians only, but will equally affect Eritreans.

Many higdefawiyan justify PFDJ’s scotched earth foreign policy in the horn of Africa as a justifiable means to demarcate the border.  But this is typical ‘ker’iyeka iye’ politics!  This isn’t acceptable basis for pursuing foreign policy. 

Unless PFDJ intends to invade Ethiopia [which isn’t possible] and put remnants of Kinijit in power [as its puppet], no next Ethiopian government [esp. of the Amhara variety] will accept the border demarcation without some Eritrean concession if it is brought through domestic ‘orange’ revolution [most optimistic scenario].  As surely as the sun rises on the East and set on the West, PFDJ will suddenly tell us the border demarcation isn’t a priority if Meles regime was to fall.  For greater emphasis, PFDJ’s scorched earth policy towards Ethiopia is only to remove the Meles regime and has nothing to do with the issue of border demarcation. 

The only prudent action Eritrea should take, and should have taken the last 6 years, is simply what Min. Haile Drue said.  We, Eritreans, should return to managing our country like any other viable nation.  The 1997 Constitution must be implemented without any more delay, release all political and prisoner’s of conscious, the restoration of the rule-of-law, addressing pension system, demobilize the excess army, and addressing many other immediate issues.

Eritreans are tired of ‘nefahito’ politics.  Before yesterday, it was Sudan, then Yemen, then Ethiopia, then today it is Darfur, then Somalia, and then to the US, and then back to Kemal Gelchu …   Where is the peace-of-mind, where is the bread, where is the love, where is the hope, where is the future, what does the future hold?

Downfall of Regime

What will ensure that the regime falls?  One can examine the Cuban experience and the Soviet Union experience.

Cuba is located a stone throw away from the Southern tip of the US.  The US government has imposed total embargo against Cuba for over 43 years.  There are many affluent Cuban-Americans in the US, esp. Florida, who have poured massive amounts into knocking off the Castro regime.  There are many 24X7 radio stations aimed at anti-Castro propaganda beamed to Cuba.  Yet Castro has survived almost fifty years.  But Cuba survived all this pressure until 1989 due to massive Soviet assistance amounting to some $5 billion per year.  By 1989, Cuba had developed healthy tourism industry, cigar, sugar and other plantations to sustain its economy.  Cubans didn’t have their rights and freedoms enshrined in any constitution but, at least, weren’t subjected to extended Warsai Yekealo projects.   PFDJ’s Eritrea can’t be compared to Cuba.

PFDJ’s experience can be compared more to the Soviet experience, and even Saddam’s Iraq or Kim’s North Korea.  The Soviet Union drained its human and capital resources in its losing battle with Afghanistan.  Saddam’s Iraq drained its resources in its war with Iran, Kuwait, and super-weapons to destroy its perceived enemies.  Similarly, North Korea is draining its precious resources to build nuclear capacity.   In each case, they were or are engaged in activities that quickly drain their meager human and financial resources that will ensure their quick demise. 

PFDJ is draining every resource to maintain 350,000 man army and to finance subversive elements in Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan.  This doesn’t come cheap for a country that exports less than $ 80 Million USD per year.  This isn’t even enough to cover the increased cost of fuel in the last few months.

None of us have any illusions that change can only come from within Eritrea.  The first function [not necessarily in any order] of Diaspora political organizations is to nurture, support and create the right conditions for domestic forces to mobilize.  The second function of these Diaspora organizations is to develop systematic and learning organizations, and to formulate a cohesive political principles and platforms.  The third function of Diaspora organizations is to undertake extensive public discussions to draw up comprehensive blueprint for post-PFDJ Eritrea.  The fourth function of these Diaspora organizations remains the mobilization of world opinion against the regime.      

If what primarily motivates the opposition political groups is the quick removal of the regime, and consider secondary their pursuit for the game of  musical chair of power in post-PFDJ Eritrea, there are many means to put a strangle hold on the regime.    

Berhan Hagos

August 26, 2006